Tropical Cyclone Discussion

440
WTPA42 PHFO 040253
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  54
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Oct 03 2026

Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the eye and the 
inner core of Nolo have degraded, most likely due to an ongoing 
eyewall replacement cycle. This evolution was seen earlier on 
microwave imagery showing an outer moat region within the cyclone. 
Using a combination of the subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and 
HFO along with the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the 
initial intensity has been set to 100 kt for this advisory.  
 
Nolo continues to move quickly off towards the west at around 17 kt, 
as the hurricane is being steered by an expanding mid-level ridge to 
its north. Nolo should continue this motion with a forward speed 
between 15 and 20 kt for the next several days, and Nolo is expected 
to move across the International Date Line within the next 24 hours. 
There is a large spread in the later portion of the track forecast 
around days 4 and 5. This track spread seems related to potential 
interaction with a disturbance (Invest 94W) currently near the 
Marshall Islands and a longwave trough expected to move east of 
Japan. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous 
one, with some small adjustments made based on the HCCA and GDMI 
forecast aids.

A generally favorable environment with low shear and warm 
sea-surface temperatures near 28 C should allow for some more 
intensification during the next day or so. The key to this forecast 
will be how soon the current eyewall replacement cycle is completed. 
If the cycle takes longer to complete, Nolo's intensification could 
be delayed. After 36 h, the wind shear is forecast to increase, 
which could lead to weakening that may also be hastened by 
intrusions of dry air. The current NHC intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous one with some small changes made over the next 36 
h. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 23.4N 175.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 23.6N 177.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 24.4N 179.0E  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 25.1N 176.0E  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 25.3N 172.7E  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 25.3N 168.8E  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 25.6N 164.6E   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 27.0N 156.5E   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 28.5N 151.7E   60 KT  70 MPH