Tropical Cyclone Discussion
439 WTPZ43 KNHC 040253 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026 Satellite imagery suggests that Rachel's convective organization has improved since the previous advisory. The hurricane now shows a large, defined eye surrounded by a symmetric ring of deep convection with cloud top temperatures as cold as -80 C. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB came in at T4.5/77 kt, closely mirroring many of the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates that range from 70 to 97 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt. The initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/4 kt. Rachel's slow motion over the next two days will be governed by a ridge extending southwestward from a mid- to upper-level high over the western United States. Rachel is forecast to accelerate slightly after 60 h, continuing on a west to west-northwestward trajectory through the remainder of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast was largely unchanged from the previous advisory, roughly in between the corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Rachel is forecast to experience weakening in the next 24 h as it enters an unfavorable environment of cooler sea surface temperatures associated with Hurricane Polo's cold wake, moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear, and mid-level dry air. However, the cyclone could be at the early stage of acquiring structural characteristics typical of an annular hurricane, as outer rainbands have dissipated in favor of a thick, uniform central core. This could temper any weakening, as long as the easterly wind shear remains relatively low, and the new forecast is a bit higher than the last one. As Rachel continues on a westward motion, vertical wind shear decreases, allowing environmental conditions to improve and offering the chance for some re-intensification through 72 h. Beyond 72 h, however, Rachel should encounter an even drier air mass, with mid-level relative humidity values dipping below 40 percent, alongside SSTs dropping below 26 C. These conditions are forecast to cause the cyclone to gradually weaken through at the end of the forecast period, similar to the last advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.0N 112.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.3N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 20.6N 116.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 20.6N 117.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 20.6N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 20.7N 121.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 21.6N 124.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 22.5N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH