Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
326 AXPZ20 KNHC 032119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.8N 112.5W at 03/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18N to 21N between 110W and 115W. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west-northwest, and this slow motion is expected to continue through tonight. A west to west-northwest motion is then expected Sunday through the middle of next week, with a gradual increase in forward speed. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, with some slight restrengthening possible on Monday. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of west-central Mexico through the weekend and the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N90W to 13N100W, then resumes W of Hurricane Rachel near 08N116W to 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 90W and 102W, and from 11N to 14N between 110W and 120W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are seen from 00N to 10N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, light to gentle winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California, with the exception of moderate N winds N of 29N and W of 114W. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico north of Guerrero. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.0N 113.2W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 114.2W Sun afternoon, 20.5N 115.4W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.6N 116.8W Mon afternoon, 20.8N 118.5W Tue morning, and 20.9N 120.1W Tue afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.6N 123.3W Wed afternoon. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon night. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf through Sun night. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sun, then winds and seas may increase late this weekend or early next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. A band of fresh to strong SW to W winds, with rough seas, remains south of Hurricane Rachel, affecting the area from 13N to 15N between 107W and 112W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 10N to 27N between 103W and 121W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.0N 113.2W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 114.2W Sun afternoon, 20.5N 115.4W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.6N 116.8W Mon afternoon, 20.8N 118.5W Tue morning, and 20.9N 120.1W Tue afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.6N 123.3W Wed afternoon. Rough seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 10N to 27N between 105W and 120W the remainder of the weekend.