Tropical Cyclone Discussion

587
WTPZ43 KNHC 032054
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026

Satellite imagery suggests that Rachel has formed a larger eye this 
afternoon, with the inner eyewall fading away on the latest 
infrared data.  Intensity estimates have dropped slightly, and
latest subjective Dvorak CI number from TAFB was 
4.5/77 kt, but the Final T-number was 4.0/65 kt. This aligns well 
with most UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates, which 
range from 63 to 77 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the 
initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt.

The initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/4 kt. 
Rachel's slow motion over the next two days will be governed by a 
ridge extending southwestward from a mid- to upper-level high over 
the western United States. Rachel is forecast to accelerate 
slightly after 60 h, continuing on a west to west-northwestward 
trajectory through the remainder of the forecast period. The 
updated NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous 
advisory and roughly follows the corrected-consensus (HCCA) aid 
through 120 h. 

Rachel is anticipated to gradual weaken through the next 24 h due 
to an unfavorable environment of moderate northeasterly vertical 
wind shear, dry mid-level air, and cooler sea surface temperatures 
(SSTs) associated with Hurricane Polo's cold wake. As Rachel 
moves west of the wake, environmental conditions should allow 
for some re-intensification after the weekend through 72 h. 
However, beyond 72 h, Rachel will encounter an even drier air mass, 
with mid-level relative humidity values dipping below 40 percent. 
At the same time, SSTs will drop below 26 C, likely expediting the 
weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast period. The 
new forecast is very similar to the previous one. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 19.8N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 20.3N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 20.5N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 20.6N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 20.8N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 20.9N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 21.6N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 22.5N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH