Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

796
AXPZ20 KNHC 031531
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.6N 112.1W at 03/1500 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of 
center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
elsewhere from 17N to 21N between 110W and 115W. Rachel is moving
slowly toward the west-northwest, and this slow motion is 
expected to continue through tonight. A west to west-northwest 
motion is then expected Sunday through the middle of next week, 
with a gradual increase in forward speed. Some weakening is forecast 
during the next day or so, with some slight restrengthening 
possible on Monday. Rachel is forecast to remain a hurricane for 
the next few days. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to 
affect the coast of west-central Mexico through the weekend and 
the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N90W to 10N105W, then
resumes W of Rachel near 10N120W to 15N130W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
10N to 16N between 94W and 103W, and from 11N to 16N between 
108W and 118W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are seen
from 00N to 09N W of 130W. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Hurricane Rachel.
Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate
winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over the offshore waters
of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are
in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by 
Rachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the
offshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters 
of southwestern Mexico north of Guerrero.
For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.9N 112.8W this 
evening, 20.2N 113.7W Sun morning, 20.3N 114.8W Sun evening, 
20.5N 116.1W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.7W Mon evening, and 20.8N 
119.3W Tue morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 
21.3N 122.6W early Wed. Seas generated by Rachel will continue 
to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California,
and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon. Rough 
seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including
the entrance to the Gulf through Sun night. Moderate to fresh W 
to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sun, 
then winds and seas may increase late this weekend into early 
next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of
the southern coast of Mexico. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the
region. 
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will
maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along
with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may
increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
early next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast 
of Mexico.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Rachel.
Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast
waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting
gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. A
band of fresh to strong SW to W winds, with rough seas, is south
of Hurricane Rachel, affecting the area from 11N to 15N between 108W
and 115W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the 
monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the 
waters from 10N to 26N between 102W and 118W. Moderate seas prevail
elsewhere. 
For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.9N 112.8W 
this evening, 20.2N 113.7W Sun morning, 20.3N 114.8W Sun evening,
20.5N 116.1W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.7W Mon evening, and 20.8N 
119.3W Tue morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 
21.3N 122.6W early Wed. Rough seas generated by Rachel will cover
the waters roughly from 10N to 27N between 101W and 120W during 
the weekend.