Tropical Cyclone Discussion
566 WTPZ43 KNHC 031437 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM MST Sat Oct 03 2026 Rachel's convective structure has gradually become less impressive over past day. Satellite imagery shows the deep convection nearly void in the northwest quadrant, which is likely allowing some dry air to entrain into the center of Rachel. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity number from TAFB is 4.5/77 kt. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65-72 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. Rachel is now moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 3 kt. A mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the western United States has a ridge extending southwest out in front of Rachel's path. Rachel is expected to continue moving quite slowly for the next 2 days as the ridge remains in place to Rachel's west-northwest. Early next week, a mid- to upper-level trough to the west of the ridge will very gradually strengthen and drift eastward, which will slowly erode the ridge over the 3- to 5-day time period. This will allow Rachel to gain some forward speed by hour 60, with a continued motion between west and west-northwest. The NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous track through 60 h, and slightly south of the previous official track at days 4-5. The NHC forecast is in good agreement with the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), and lies slightly to the south of the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean through 96 h. It should be noted that there is a fair amount of north-south (cross-track) spread in the guidance, and forecast confidence appears to be near average. Additional gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours as sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) decrease along Rachel's path while the cyclone moves over the cold water wake left over by Hurricane Polo last week. After Rachel emerges out of Polo's cold wake, some slight restrengthening is expected, and this restrengthening is shown in the HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and HWRF models. Beyond hour 72, Rachel will reach dry mid-level air with relative humidity values near 40 percent. SSTs will also be decreasing at that time, and Rachel is expected to cross the 26C degree SST isotherm in about 4 days. The NHC forecast continues to show weakening in the 3- to 5-day time frame due to the drier air and cooling SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is still near the high end of the guidance envelope through the first 4 days and closer to the middle of the guidance envelope by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.6N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.9N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.2N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.3N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.5N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 20.7N 117.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 20.8N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 21.3N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 22.3N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH