Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

573
AXNT20 KNHC 030940
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0925 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are observed near the wave
axis mainly S of 13N.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 115 kt. A few showers are noted near the
northern portion of the wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 08N39W. Scattered to numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 16N and 
between 37W and 57W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf waters, and
isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. The pressure gradient
between a surface trough along 93W and a high pressure system
north of Bermuda sustain moderate to locally strong SE winds over
the Gulf E of 93W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail W of 93W.
For the forecast, the aforementioned upper-level low will sustain
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the 
Gulf through the weekend. A moderate pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a surface trough 
in the central Gulf will support moderate to locally strong SE 
winds over much of the eastern half of the Gulf into Sun. A weak 
cold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend, 
and stall from the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by 
late Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up along the front during the
weekend and into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and in 
the north-central Gulf. The front will remain stationary into 
midweek. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected behind the 
front beginning Tue, mainly in the NE and north-central Gulf, as 
strong high pressure builds southward behind it. Light to moderate
are generally expected across the basin through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found off Yucatan
and in the SW Caribbean Sea. Similar activity is noted over and
around Hispaniola and Cuba. A broad subtropical ridge north of the
area supports moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and
seas of 4-8 ft across much of the basin, except for slight to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in the SW Caribbean.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force fresh
to locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and in 
the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. As a frontal boundary 
reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient 
will slacken again from Sun through the middle of next week 
leading to gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Trades may 
pulse to fresh speeds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela 
Mon night.
Of note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are 
possible across Hispaniola this weekend, particularly over Haiti 
and western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen 
toward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island
by Sun. This combined with available moisture and local effects 
as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting
will likely increase the chances of rain in the area. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The interaction between a surface trough extending from 31N52W to
near Hispaniola and an upper trough over the western Atlantic
promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm
on both sides of the trough axis. High pressure north of Bermuda
supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across much of
the SW North Atlantic, W of 55W.
In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, high pressure centered west
of France sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 
moderate seas between 30W and 55W. E of 30W and north of the
monsoon trough, a tighter pressure gradient allows for moderate 
to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-10 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the combination of a trough extending
from SE of Bermuda to Hispaniola and a broad upper-level trough 
digging southward will continue to support scattered showers and 
thunderstorms through the weekend between Bermuda and the Caribbean.
High pressure will support mainly moderate easterly winds and moderate
seas through the forecast period S of 30N. Looking ahead, a cold 
front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning and 
stall. Strong high pressure will nudge southward behind the front 
with the resultant pressure gradient between it and the front 
likely to induce strong NE winds, with potential to near gale 
force, and along with building seas offshore NE Florida.