Tropical Cyclone Discussion
969 WTPA42 PHFO 030837 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 51 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Oct 02 2026 Nolo is rapidly intensifying this evening, with cold cloud tops associated with deep convection expanding symmetrically around a very warm eye. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both JTWC and HFO came in at T5.0/90 kt, which align with objective estimates. Given these intensity estimates and the continued improvement in the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt. The initial motion is westward, or 270/9 kt. Guidance remains in good agreement through the forecast period, with very little cross-track spread, and shows a generally westward motion continuing through the weekend. A gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 h as the ridge builds to the north, with a faster westward motion continuing thereafter. Nolo is forecast to cross the International Date Line into the western Pacific basin by 48 h. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction. The significant strengthening anticipated in the previous advisory is well underway, with Nolo's intensity having increased by about 20 kt during the past 6 h. The persistent westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear that had been impacting Nolo's convective structure has weakened significantly, with the latest UW-CIMSS estimate around 5 kt. Weak shear combined with warmer SSTs along the forecast track should support additional strengthening during the next 24-48 h. The primary limiting factor continues to be the surrounding dry mid-level air. Any dry air intrusions during this period could disrupt the convective organization in the eyewall and slow the intensification rate. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous advisory, showing Nolo becoming a major hurricane within 12 h and reaching a peak intensity of 120 kt in 36-48 h. The forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope, lying close to the HCCA and HAFS-A and -B. A weakening trend is forecast to begin after 48 h as increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air begin to gradually affect its structure. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 23.3N 169.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 23.3N 171.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 23.6N 175.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 24.2N 178.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 24.9N 177.9E 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 25.3N 175.0E 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 25.5N 171.4E 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 25.9N 162.6E 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 27.0N 155.1E 80 KT 90 MPH