Tropical Cyclone Discussion

096
WTPZ43 KNHC 030240
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM MST Fri Oct 02 2026

The convective structure of Rachel has remained largely unchanged 
since the previous advisory. Visible satellite imagery continues to 
show a cloud-filled eye inside a central dense overcast (CDO), with 
much of the deeper convection displaced slightly to the west of the 
center due to moderate northeasterly wind shear. The latest 
subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, while 
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 79 to 94 kt. The 
initial intensity is lowered slightly to 85 kt for this advisory, 
blending the subjective and objective estimates.

The initial motion is estimated to be 280/4 kt, or slowly westward. 
This slow westward motion is expected to continue, with a gradual 
increase in forward speed and a turn toward the west-northwest over 
the weekend as the ridge begins to weaken. While the track guidance 
is in fair agreement with this scenario, there is some guidance 
disagreement regarding the timing of the forward speed early next 
week. The updated track forecast closely aligns with the previous 
advisory through 96 h, then nudges slightly southward thereafter, 
lying near the reliable HCCA consensus model.
 
Rachel is forecast to encounter moderate northeasterly vertical wind 
shear and a moisture-starved environment, which should initiate a 
weakening trend over the next several days. Sea-surface temperatures 
(SSTs) along the hurricane's path will decrease from 29 to 27C over 
the next 36 to 48 h as Rachel moves through the cold wake of 
Hurricane Polo, further expediting this weakening. Beyond that time, 
SSTs should rebound slightly to 28C as the cyclone exits the cold 
wake, though it will be entering an increasingly dry mid-level 
environment. These competing factors are expected to result in 
little net change in strength during the 48- to 72-hour period, and 
the NHC intensity forecast continues to flatline Rachel at 70 kt. By 
96 to 120 hours, Rachel is forecast to cross sub-26C waters and 
encounter even drier air, inducing steady weakening back to tropical 
storm strength by the end of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 19.4N 111.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 19.5N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 19.8N 112.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 20.1N 113.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 20.2N 114.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 20.4N 116.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 20.7N 117.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 21.2N 121.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 22.1N 124.2W   55 KT  65 MPH