Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
606 AXPZ20 KNHC 022126 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.3N 111.1W at 02/2100 UTC, moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward the west, and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A gradual turn toward the west- northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday. Some weakening is expected over the next day or two. However, Rachel is expected to remain a hurricane for the next several days. A few hours ago, the weather station on Socorro Island measured sustained winds of 53 kt (97 km/h) with a gust to 74 kt (137 km/h). Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 15N96W, then resumes W of Rachel near 15N115W to 15N130W to beyond 07N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 03N to 06N E of 83W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 16N between 86W and 100W, from 10N to 15N between 110W and 122W, and from 00N to 08N W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are reaching the entrance to the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico north of Michoacan. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.4N 111.6W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.4W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.2W Sun morning, 20.2N 114.2W Sun afternoon, 20.3N 115.4W Mon morning, and 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 21.0N 120.0W Tue afternoon. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf through Sun night. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sun, then winds and seas may increase beginning on Sun night as an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Mon as an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. A band of fresh to strong winds, with rough seas, is south of Hurricane Rachel, affecting the area from 11N to 15N between 107W and 116W based on recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 10N to 26N between 102W and 118W. Moderate to locally rough seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.4N 111.6W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.4W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.2W Sun morning, 20.2N 114.2W Sun afternoon, 20.3N 115.4W Mon morning, and 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 21.0N 120.0W Tue afternoon. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 105W and 120W during the upcoming weekend.