Tropical Cyclone Discussion
460 WTPA42 PHFO 022035 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 49 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Fri Oct 02 2026 Nolo's eye has come and gone in visible and infrared satellite imagery since the early morning hours. Based on the current structure, HFO and JTWC have both provided Dvorak Current Intensity estimates of 4.0/65 kt, and a UW-CIMSS DMINT estimate based on a 1805 UTC GMI microwave pass yielded an estimate of 66 kt. Nolo is therefore upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Nolo's motion is now slowly westward, or 280/5 kt, due to weak ridging to the north of the hurricane. A mid-level area of high pressure located west of the International Date Line is expected to build eastward, re-establishing itself to the north of Nolo and causing the cyclone to accelerate significantly--moving 3 times faster than it is now--by late Saturday. This fast, mostly-westward movement is then expected to continue through the middle of next week, with Nolo crossing the International Date Line between 48-60 hours. Model spread is remarkably narrow, which increases forecast confidence in Nolo's track, and the new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction. There is still some moderate deep-layer westerly shear affecting Nolo, but that shear is expected to decrease during the next 6-12 hours and become negligible by this time tomorrow. While the shear lessens, Nolo is expected to move over slightly warmer waters, and the environment is forecast to become more divergent aloft. These 3 factors could lead to a period of significant strengthening. The one main negative factor is mid-level moisture around the hurricane, which will only be in the 40 percent range. That said, DTOPS, one of NHC's rapid intensification (RI) predictors, is now showing a probability of RI over 50 percent during the next 24 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is now explicitly showing the possibility of RI, and it is just below the highest guidance, which include HCCA, the Florida State Superensemble, and HAFS-A and -B. Model guidance is unanimous in showing a weakening trend after day 3, generally in response to an increase in deep-layer northerly shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 23.3N 167.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 23.3N 169.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 23.3N 172.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 23.4N 175.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 24.0N 178.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 24.7N 178.0E 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 25.3N 174.8E 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 25.7N 167.2E 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 26.9N 159.1E 70 KT 80 MPH