Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
713 AXNT20 KNHC 021657 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37/38W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 14N and between 33W and 40W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the southern coast of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N21W and then west-northwestward to 12N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 09N to 14N and between 52W and 60W, while more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the far eastern portions of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad upper-level low over SE Mexico, combined with abundant tropical moisture, promote numerous moderate to strong convection over much of the Gulf E of 92W. High pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico support moderate to fresh, locally strong SE winds and moderate seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are found north of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, an upper-level low just west of the northern Yucatan Peninsula moving westward will continue to sustain scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the NE Gulf and a couple of troughs over the northern and central Gulf is allowing for mostly fresh east to southeast winds to exist across the central and eastern Gulf waters. A weak cold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend, and stall from the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by late Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up along the front during the weekend and into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and north-central Gulf. Winds elsewhere behind the front are expected to mostly moderate northeast winds. Light to moderate are generally expected across the basin through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad upper-level low over SE Mexico and abundant moisture fuel scattered moderate convection mainly W of 80W. High pressure north of the area continues to support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the Caribbean Sea, except for light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Winds are locally strong offshore Colombia and Venezuela, and also in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, an upper-level low currently over southeastern Mexico with abundant tropical moisture will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 80W today. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean and the Colombian Low will force fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through early next week leading to only moderate trades across the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 33N51W to near 20N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 22N between 55W and 70W. High pressure between Bermuda and Outer Banks forces moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 28N and west of 70W. The remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a broad ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure system just off the Iberian peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and west of 30W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W through at least Sat. Meanwhile, the combination of a surface trough, remnants of Fay, and a broad upper-level trough digging southward will continue to support similar shower and thunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of about 22N and east of 70W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will pulse to fresh to locally strong speeds tonight. Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions are expected through Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning, followed by increasing winds, possibly to near gale, and building seas.