Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

865
AXPZ20 KNHC 021535
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.3N 110.8W at 02/1500 UTC,
moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.
Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Rachel is moving
toward the west, and this general motion is expected to continue
through the weekend. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest 
with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday. Additional 
weakening is expected over the next day or two. However, Rachel 
is expected to remain a hurricane for the next several days.
Rachel is passing just north of Socorro Island. The weather station
on this island recently measured sustained winds of 50 kt (92 
km/h) with a gust to 68 kt (127 km/h). Swells generated by Rachel
will affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California
Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N95W, then resumes W
of Rachel near 16N115W to 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Clusters of
moderate to strong convection are noted from 01N to 06N E of 82W
to the coast of Colombia. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection are observed from 11N to 15.5N between 86W and 100W,
from 10N to 13N between 110W and 120W, and from 00N to 08N W of
123W. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Hurricane Rachel.
Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, moderate to
fresh winds, and rough seas, prevail over the open waters off
Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas,
are over the Gulf of California.  
For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.3N 111.4W 
this evening, 19.6N 112.1W Sat morning, 19.8N 112.9W Sat evening,
20.0N 113.9W Sun morning, 20.2N 115.0W Sun evening, and 20.3N 
116.3W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it 
moves to near 20.8N 119.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel 
will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of
Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will
persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the 
entrance to the Gulf. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are 
expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sat night, then winds
and seas may increase beginning on Sun as an area of low pressure
could develop late this weekend or early next week south of the 
southern coast of Mexico. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the
region. 
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will
maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along
with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may
increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
by Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late this weekend
or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Rachel.
Outside of Hurricane Rachel, the pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon 
trough and W of 115W. Fresh to strong winds are south of 
Hurricane Rachel, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 10N
to 16N between 90W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail 
elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas cover the waters N 
of 05N between 90W and 120W. Moderate to locally rough winds 
prevail elsewhere. 
For the forecast, Rachel will move to 19.5N 111.1W this 
afternoon, 19.5N 111.9W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.7W Sat afternoon, 
19.8N 113.6W Sun morning, 19.9N 114.5W Sun afternoon, and 20.1N 
115.8W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it 
moves to near 20.6N 118.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel 
will propagate across the forecast waters, covering roughly the 
area from 10N to 25N between 100W and 120W over the next couple 
of days.