Tropical Cyclone Discussion

854
WTPZ43 KNHC 021451
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM MST Fri Oct 02 2026
 
Rachel's inner core looks slightly less impressive on satellite 
imagery than it did 6 to 12 hours ago. The eyewall is not very tight 
and compact, with areas of dry air intrusion possibly affecting the 
eyewall.  The latest TAFB current intensity estimate is 5.5/102 kt, 
but the final-T number is 4.5/77 kt.  Objective intensity estimates 
from UW-CIMSS have been ranging from 80-95 kt.  The initial 
intensity is lowered to 95 kt, which is 5 kt lower than the previous 
NHC advisory.
 
The cyclone is still moving slowly westward at 265/5 kt and will be 
making its closest approach to Socorro Island today.  This motion is 
expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed over 
the weekend and into early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to 
the north.  A gradual bend toward the west-northwest is forecast by 
Monday as the ridge begins to weaken.  The track guidance remains in 
fair agreement on this scenario, although some differences remain in 
the timing of the increase in forward speed by early next week. The 
latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and 
lies near the HCCA aid.  The NHC forecast is a bit to the south of 
the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean.

Moderate east-northeasterly vertical wind shear might be helping 
some dry mid-level air to entrain into Rachel's core, which seems to 
be causing the eyewall to become a bit more spread out and diffuse 
compared to 12 hours ago.  These conditions are not forecast to 
abate during the next 24 hours.  All the guidance shows weakening 
during the next 24 hours, and so does the official forecast, which 
is about 15 kt lower than the previous NHC prediction at hour 12 and 
24.  This forecast remains near the high end of the guidance.  
Beyond hour 24 the shear should relax somewhat, which should allow 
Rachel to maintain hurricane intensity for the next 4 days or so.  
The latest forecast flatlines the intensity at 70 kt from hour 36 to 
day 4, which is also near the high end of the guidance, but lower 
than the previous NHC forecast. It should be noted that the HAFS 
models, HWRF and HMON show Rachel weakening to a tropical storm 
within the next 24 hours, and then staying at tropical storm 
strength through the period.  After day 4, Rachel will move across 
the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm toward cooler water while 
also reaching a progressively drier mid-level airmass.  These 
conditions should cause Rachel to weaken to a tropical storm by the 
end of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 19.3N 110.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 19.3N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.6N 112.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.8N 112.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 20.2N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 20.3N 116.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 20.8N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH