Tropical Cyclone Discussion

819
WTPA42 PHFO 021447
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  48
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Oct 02 2026
 
Nolo's convective structure continues to improve, with an eye 
becoming apparent in GOES-West infrared and proxy visible images 
during the past couple of hours. However, SHIPS and UW-CIMSS 
analyses suggest that moderate west-southwesterly shear is still 
affecting the storm, which seems realistic given the limited 
upper-level outflow and some disruption of the convection in 
the southern semicircle. Both subjective and objective estimates are 
still catching up to the improved satellite presentation, with HFO 
and UW-CIMSS DPRINT being the highest at about 55 kt, so the initial 
intensity is set just above that at 60 kt.

Nolo continues to move slowly west-northwestward, or 285/5 kt, 
located to the south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A 
mid-level area of high pressure located west of the International 
Date Line is expected to build eastward, repositioning itself to 
the north of Nolo and causing the cyclone to turn westward and 
accelerate significantly during the next few days. There is very 
little spread among the track guidance, suggesting high confidence 
in this forecast, and the new NHC track prediction has been nudged 
only slightly south of the previous forecast toward the HCCA and 
GDMI guidance. Nolo is forecast to cross the International Date 
Line by hour 60.

The shear is expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours, which 
should minimize the adverse effects of dry air in the surrounding 
environment. The NHC intensity forecast leans toward the higher end 
of the guidance, closest to the HCCA and HAFS-A/B model scenarios, 
making Nolo a major hurricane in about 2 days and potentially 
peaking in intensity around day 3. Weakening is expected after that 
time, largely due to a significant increase in deep-layer shear.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 23.2N 167.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 23.3N 168.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 23.3N 170.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 23.3N 174.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 23.7N 177.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 24.5N 179.3E  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 25.2N 176.0E  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 25.8N 168.9E  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 26.8N 161.0E   80 KT  90 MPH