Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
080 AXNT20 KNHC 020937 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 15N and between 32W and 42W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 11N31W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 08N to 17N and between 43W and 57W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad upper-level low over SE Mexico, combined with abundant tropical moisture, promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf. High pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico support moderate to locally strong SE winds and moderate seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are found north of the Yucatan peninsula. For the forecast, the aforementioned upper-level low and abundant moisture will promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern and northern Gulf through this weekend. High pressure supports moderate to locally strong SE winds over much of the basin. However, a weak front moving across Texas will weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the winds across the Gulf today into the weekend. Late this weekend, the front will reach the NW Gulf, extending from the Florida panhandle to just offshore the Texas- Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon morning. Winds behind the front should only be N to NE moderate to fresh and moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad upper-level low over SE Mexico and abundant moisture fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly W of 80W. High pressure north of the area continue to support moderate to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the Caribbean Sea, except for light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean and the Colombian Low will force fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through early next week leading to only moderate trades across the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 29N55W to the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern half of the trough. High pressure between Bermuda and Outer Banks forces moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 28N and west of 70W. The remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a broad ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure system just off the Iberian peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and west of 30W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W through at least Sat. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated with the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and thunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and east of 70W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh to locally strong this morning and tonight. Otherwise, winds and seas will be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning with increasing winds and building seas behind the boundary.