Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
465 AXPZ20 KNHC 020840 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.4N 110.4W at 02/0900 UTC, moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 105W and 120W. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west, and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed over the weekend and into early next week. Rachel is forecast to maintain its intensity today before starting a weakening trend. Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of west- central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 15N96W, then resumes near 16.5N115W to 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 16N E of 100W, and from 00N to 08N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas, prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 19.4N 110.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Rachel will move to 19.5N 111.1W this afternoon, 19.5N 111.9W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.7W Sat afternoon, 19.8N 113.6W Sun morning, 19.9N 114.5W Sun afternoon, and 20.1N 115.8W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.6N 118.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh to strong winds are south of Hurricane Rachel, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 90W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas cover the waters N of 05N between 90W and 120W. Moderate to locally rough winds prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 19.5N 111.1W this afternoon, 19.5N 111.9W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.7W Sat afternoon, 19.8N 113.6W Sun morning, 19.9N 114.5W Sun afternoon, and 20.1N 115.8W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.6N 118.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel will propagate across the forecast waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 100W and 120W over the next couple of days.