Tropical Cyclone Discussion
390 WTPZ43 KNHC 020836 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM MST Fri Oct 02 2026 Rachel's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat over the past several hours, with the eye becoming obscured in conventional satellite imagery and some mid-level dry air entraining into the northeastern portion of the circulation. However, recent microwave imagery indicates that the inner-core structure remains intact. A 0429 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass helped refine the wind radii and structure. The latest Dvorak Data-T estimate from TAFB decreased to 4.5/77 kt, with objective intensity estimates ranging from 87 to 104 kt. Given these estimates and the degraded satellite presentation, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt. The initial motion is westward, or 270/4 kt, and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed over the weekend and into early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to the north. A gradual bend toward the west-northwest is forecast between 72 and 96 h as the ridge begins to weaken. The track guidance remains in decent agreement on this scenario, although some differences remain in the timing of the increase in forward speed by early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids. Although modest east-northeasterly shear and some dry mid-level air are currently influencing the convective structure, environmental conditions largely remain favorable for Rachel to remain near its current intensity during the next 12 h, especially while the inner-core structure remains intact. Thereafter, increasingly dry mid-level air is forecast to begin wrapping into the system, while some east-northeasterly shear could persist. These factors should gradually disrupt the inner-core structure and induce a weakening trend. Increasingly marginal sea surface temperatures later in the forecast period should support continued weakening through day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory, showing Rachel holding steady over the next 12 h and then gradually weakening thereafter. This intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope through the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 19.4N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 19.5N 111.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.5N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.7N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.8N 113.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.1N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 20.6N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 21.6N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH