Tropical Cyclone Discussion

359
WTPA42 PHFO 020834
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  47
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Oct 01 2026
 
Nolo is experiencing yet another burst of deep convection within its 
northwest quadrant. While the southern semicircle remains relatively 
free of activity, convection is starting to become more persistent 
about the center of circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO both rated Nolo at 3.5/55 kt, 
while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS continue to exhibit a wide 
range of intensity estimates, from 35 to 57 kt. Based on these 
intensity estimates and the improved satellite presentation, Nolo's 
initial intensity was held at 55 kt. 

The initial motion is set at 290/5 kt. While Nolo's motion has 
slowed once again, the anticipated turn to the west is becoming 
increasingly evident on satellite. High pressure located downstream 
of the system is expected to shift north of Nolo, allowing it to 
maintain a westward motion while gaining forward speed. Track 
guidance seems to have better shifted to this more consistent, 
due-west motion, so the latest NHC track forecast reflects this. 
Overall, the track forecast has shifted to the left a bit from the 
previous advisory, nudging towards HCCA and GDMI guidance.

SHIPS guidance consistently depicts Nola entering an environment 
favorable for steady intensification. While mid-level moisture 
looks to remain steady, vertical wind shear will markedly decrease 
and SSTs will warm along Nolo's path. As a result, Nolo is expected 
to become a hurricane once again over the weekend, and potentially 
a major hurricane as it approaches the International Dateline. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast generally falls in line with the 
guidance median, with the main changes being to increase the rate 
of intensification over the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 23.3N 166.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 23.4N 167.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 23.5N 169.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 23.5N 172.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 23.7N 175.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 24.3N 179.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 25.1N 177.8E  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 26.2N 171.2E  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 27.1N 163.2E   95 KT 110 MPH