Tropical Cyclone Discussion

998
WTPA42 PHFO 020237
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

Nolo continues to gradually become better organized. While 
the storm's structure is still lacking across the southern 
semicircle with drier air prevailing, deep convection is 
re-igniting close to the center of circulation, displaced slightly 
to the northwest. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
from JTWC and HFO rated Nolo at 45 and 55 kt, respectively, while 
UW-CIMSS objective estimates show a wide spread of 29 to 50 kt. 
With ASCAT data from around 2100 UTC showing max winds around 46 
kt, and no significant changes occuring with Nolo's structure, the 
initial intensity was held steady at 50 kt. 

The initial motion was set at 310/10 kt. Nolo has nearly doubled in 
speed over the last six hours. This is likely due high pressure 
downstream of the system moving to Nolo's north, allowing the 
cyclone to be picked up by stronger, subtropical steering flow. 
Track guidance exhibits a fair amount of agreement on Nolo shifting 
closer to due west over the next 24 to 48 hours, before turning back 
to the west-northwest over the weekend while gaining forward speed. 
Little was changed with the latest NHC track forecast compared to 
the previous forecast. 

Nolo is expected to enter a favorable environment defined by 
warming SSTs and decreasing vertical wind shear. This will allow 
for gradual restrengthening through much of the forecast period, 
and Nolo may become a major hurricane as it approaches the 
International Dateline. The latest NHC intensity forecast does 
adjust Nolo's rate of strengthening heading into the weekend down 
slightly, mostly as an effort to keep it more in line with the 
guidance median, however Nolo's peak strength was raised slightly 
to bring it more into agreement with HCCA guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 23.2N 166.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 23.4N 166.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 23.5N 168.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 23.5N 170.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 23.6N 173.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 24.1N 177.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 24.8N 179.6E  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 26.3N 173.1E  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 27.3N 165.5E   95 KT 110 MPH