Tropical Cyclone Discussion
971 WTPZ43 KNHC 020235 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM MST Thu Oct 01 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the convective structure associated with Rachel has changed little over the past several hours. A ragged eye surrounded by deep convection with cloud-top temperatures as cold as -85 C persists, although the coverage of the coldest cloud tops has decreased slightly. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is T5.5/102 kt, which aligns with the latest objective estimates. Given these estimates and the relatively steady satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 105 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/3 kt. Little change in motion is expected during the next day or so while the system remains within a weak steering environment. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north, supporting a more westward track with the forward speed gradually increasing through the remainder of the forecast period. A gradual bend toward the west-northwest is forecast between 96 and 120 h as the ridge begins to weaken. The track guidance remains in generally good agreement on this scenario, although some differences remain in the timing of the acceleration. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids. Environmental conditions should remain largely favorable for some additional strengthening during the next 24 h. Some east-northeasterly vertical wind shear may continue to affect the cyclone during this time, although Rachel's well-established inner-core structure should allow for additional strengthening in the short term. Thereafter, increasingly dry mid-level air is forecast to begin wrapping into the system, while some east-northeasterly shear could persist. These factors should gradually disrupt the inner-core structure and induce a weakening trend. Increasingly marginal sea surface temperatures later in the forecast period should support continued weakening through day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory, showing Rachel reaching a peak intensity of 115 kt within the next 12 h. This peak remains above the intensity guidance, with the forecast thereafter gradually trending toward the upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.5N 109.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 19.5N 110.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.5N 111.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 19.6N 112.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 19.9N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.2N 117.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 20.8N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH