Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
429 AXPZ20 KNHC 012137 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.4N 109.5W at 01/2100 UTC, moving west at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west, and this slow west to west-northwest motion is expected the next couple of days. Rachel is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast the next day or so, before some gradual weakening this weekend. Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Remnants of Nineteen-E is centered near 15.0N 123.0W at 01/2100 UTC, moving east at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are 10 ft. The remnants are moving toward the east and this motion is expected to continue for another day or so. The last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system at 2100 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Nineteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 90W N of 03N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 10N between 80W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 15N97W, then resumes W of the remnants of T.D. Nineteen-E near 12N130W to beyond 05N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rachel and the remnants of T.D. Nineteen-E, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 10N to 14N between 110W and 120W, and from 00N to 10N W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the offshore forecast waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas, and also from 17N to 20N between 110W and 115W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. Tropical Storm conditions are expected near the entrance to the Gulf of California tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery of Rachel are impacting the coastal waters of Jalisco, including the Cabo Corrientes area. Large swell generated by Rachel are reaching the entrance to the Gulf of California, as well as the waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas are observed in the Tehuantepec region, particularly from 14N to 15N between 94W and 97W. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are noted across the remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California while light to gentle winds dominate the Gulf of california. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move will move to 19.5N 110.0W Fri morning, 19.5N 110.7W Fri afternoon, 19.6N 111.5W Sat morning, 19.8N 112.5W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.5W Sun morning, and 20.1N 114.6W Sun afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.2N 117.3W Mon afternoon. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf. Winds and seas south of the Tehuantepec region will diminish early on Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the region, with locally higher winds and seas near the convective activity. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel and the remnants of Nineteen-E. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 116W. Under the influence of this system, mainly light to gentle winds with moderate seas are noted. A band-like of westerly winds is south of Rachel affecting the waters from 12N to 15N between 106W and 119W. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.5N 110.0W Fri morning, 19.5N 110.7W Fri afternoon, 19.6N 111.5W Sat morning, 19.8N 112.5W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.5W Sun morning, and 20.1N 114.6W Sun afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.2N 117.3W Mon afternoon. The area of fresh to strong westerly winds S of Rachel will persist over the next 48 hours. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 100W and 120W over the next couple of days.