Tropical Cyclone Discussion

018
WTPA42 PHFO 012044
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

Nolo is gradually becoming better organized.  Moderate-to-deep 
convection has made a comeback near the center, with a large spiral 
band noted in the eastern semicircle.  Additionally, microwave data 
indicate that the low-level core of the system remains fairly 
intact.  The current intensity is held at 50 kt as the satellite 
estimates haven't quite caught up with the earlier scatterometer 
pass.  
 
The storm continues to move slowly to the northwest.  A subtropical 
high over the west-central Pacific is forecast to build north of 
the cyclone during the next few days.  This evolution is expected 
to cause Nolo to turn westward by tomorrow and pick up a lot of 
forward speed over the weekend while moving generally west- 
northwestward, south of the main atolls of the northwestern 
Hawaiian Islands.  Similar to the last advisory, the new forecast 
is nudged a bit the north to come into better agreement with the 
Google DeepMind and HCCA aids.  

After the recent failed extratropical transition, it will take a 
bit of time to re-build the warm-core structure aloft, so only a 
gradual strengthening is shown for the next 24 h.  However, with 
convection near the center already, combined with the forecast drop 
in shear and increase in SSTs during the next 2-3 days, these 
factors suggest that a significant re-strengthening episode is 
coming.  Since the low-level core structure is already present, 
rapid intensification is a distinct possibility by the weekend, and 
the new forecast is raised from the previous one, showing Nolo as 
a major hurricane when it crosses the International Dateline.  
Increasing shear could cause some weakening at the end of the 
forecast period.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 22.3N 165.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 22.8N 166.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 23.2N 167.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 23.2N 168.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 23.1N 171.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 23.4N 175.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 24.1N 178.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 25.7N 175.0E  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 26.2N 167.9E   95 KT 110 MPH