Tropical Cyclone Discussion
492 WTPA42 PHFO 011452 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 44 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026 Nolo has made a bit of a recovery overnight. Satellite imagery shows that bursts of deep convection are forming in the northwestern quadrant of the storm, with some outflow becoming apparent as well. While conventional satellite estimates remain barely at tropical-storm strength, scatterometer data from overnight a bit surprisingly showed winds over 45 kt. Given the low bias of the instrument, the current intensity is set to 50 kt. The storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest. Nolo should creep to the west-northwest or northwest today while it becomes under the influence of a distant high located over the subtropical west-central Pacific. This high is forecast to strengthen significantly during the next few days, which is likely to steer Nolo much faster to the west or west-northwest this weekend into early next week. The new forecast is shifted a little to the north in the short-range to come into agreement with the various consensus estimates, then is very similar to the previous advisory at long range. Little change in strength is expected for about the next day while vertical wind shear remains high within a dry environment. However, a notable change occurs this weekend as Nolo will move on the northern side of an upper-level low, causing shear to drop off while it moves over much warmer waters. This change should allow Nolo to markedly strengthen by late this weekend, and the storm could be close to a major hurricane again by the time it nears the Dateline in 3-4 days. This is the solution shown by almost all of the regional hurricane models, and the guidance trends from the last cycle are upward. Thus, the intensity forecast is increased from the previous one, primarily due to the initial wind speed in the first day or so, then raised at longer range given the higher model guidance. I should mention that this forecast could be too conservative in a few days given the forecast upper-level wind pattern. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 21.9N 165.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 22.3N 166.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 22.9N 166.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 23.1N 168.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 22.9N 170.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 23.0N 173.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 23.4N 177.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 25.0N 176.2E 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 25.8N 169.0E 90 KT 105 MPH