Tropical Cyclone Discussion

290
WTPZ44 KNHC 011444
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192026
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2026
 
Not much has changed in the satellite imagery for Tropical 
Depression Nineteen-E over the last several hours. Convection 
continues to burst intermittently over the low-level center. The 
most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T1.5/25 kt, while the UW-CIMSS 
intensity estimates are in the range of 27-41 kt. Based on the 
available data, the initial intensity has been held at 25 kt for 
this advisory.
 
The system is moving eastward or 90/14kt, and that general motion is 
expected to continue until the depression dissipates. Environmental 
conditions are expected to become more hostile within the next day 
as easterly shear increases and more dry mid-level air gets 
entrained into the center. The guidance aids continues to support 
this scenario, showing the system dissipating within 24 h. The 
current NHC intensity forecast is essentially an update from the 
previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 15.2N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 15.1N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED