Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

779
AXPZ20 KNHC 010918
TWDEP 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.4N 109.3W at 01/0900 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with
gusts to 105 kt. Seas of 12 ft or more are estimated within 210 
NM N semicircle...330 NM SE quadrant and 180 NM SW quadrant with
seas to 36 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel will 
continue to move away from mainland Mexico and pass south of the 
Baja California Peninsula today. Swells generated by Rachel will
affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple 
of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central 
Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the 
week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office for more details.
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 15.3N 124.6W at
01/0900 UTC, moving east at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt. Seas to 10 ft are expected within 60 NM N
semicircle. The depression could become a remnant low later 
today before dissipating by Friday.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Rachel and T.D. 
  Nineteen-E.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from the western Caribbean along 88W and
N of 04N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N to 10N between 84W and 90W. 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 17N100W, then resumes 
W of Rachel near 16N110W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 300 NM S of the trough.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Hurricane Rachel.
Rachel is impacting the area between Cabo Corrientes, Socorro
Island, south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and rough seas also
persist off southern Mexico, impacting the coast from Colima to
Oaxaca. Large swell from Rachel is impacting the waters off Baja
California Sur and the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, 
moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja 
California Peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle 
winds and slight seas over the central and northern Gulf of 
California.
For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.6N 109.8W 
this afternoon, 19.8N 110.4W Fri morning, 19.9N 111.1W Fri 
afternoon, 20.2N 112.1W Sat morning, 20.4N 113.2W Sat afternoon, 
and 20.5N 114.3W Sun morning. Rachel will change little in 
intensity as it moves to 20.6N 116.5W by early Mon. Elsewhere, 
strong winds and rough seas will prevail in the Tehuantepec 
region through Fri.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle breezes and slight seas persist off the remainder of 
Central America. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 6 ft seas in a 
mix of swell are noted off Colombia and Ecuador. 
For the forecast, a light pressure gradient will maintain 
moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with 
mostly moderate seas through the period. 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E.
The remnants of Odalys are analyzed as a trough, extending from 
21N126W to 17N128W. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, 
fresh northeast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing 
north of 18N and west of 125W.
For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will move to 
15.4N 122.9W this afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 
15.2N 120.1W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Fresh to 
strong SW winds and rough seas will persist south of Rachel from 
05N to 15N east of 125W.