Tropical Cyclone Discussion

733
WTPA42 PHFO 010844
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Nolo's convection continues to dissipate. Satellite imagery this
evening reveals warming cloud-top temperatures across remnant
convection to the northwest of the low-level circulation, with dry
air across the storm's southern semicircle. The latest subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from both JTWC and HFO rate Nolo at 2.5
or 35 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging from 32 to
39 kt. Based on these data, Nolo's intensity has been held steady 
at a generous 40 kt, with the lack of in situ data being the 
primary reason for making no change. 
 
Initial motion was estimated to be 285/3 kt. Nolo's forward speed is
beginning to increase as a high pressure ridge downstream weakens.
Track guidance exhibits strong agreement on keeping Nolo on a
west-northwestward to northwest motion over the next 24 hours,
before shifting closer to due west for the rest of the week. The
system is then forecast to turn west-northwest over the weekend and
gain forward motion as it is picked up by stronger subtropical
steering flow. The latest NHC track forecast shifts Nolo's path a
little to the north to capture its initial motion better, and
generally falls between the previous advisory and HCCA guidance.
 
Nolo will struggle to regain its convection so long as it remains in 
an environment characterized by strong vertical wind shear and 
relatively dry mid-level air. Guidance, however, generally keeps 
Nolo intact long enough before entering a more favorable environment 
by the end of the week, allowing for gradual re-strengthening. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast brings Nolo's max strength down 
slightly, however, as model consensus generally favors a slower 
strengthening cycle. The forecast still falls roughly within the 
median of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 21.8N 165.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 22.0N 165.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 22.4N 166.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 22.7N 167.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 22.9N 169.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 22.9N 171.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 23.3N 175.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 24.7N 178.0E   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 25.7N 171.0E   85 KT 100 MPH