Tropical Cyclone Discussion

553
WTPZ43 KNHC 010841
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM MST Thu Oct 01 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective structure has
improved over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to
expand over the center, with cloud-top temperatures as cold as -85
C. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is
T4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates have ranged from 65 to 85 kt.
Given these estimates and the improved convective organization, the
initial intensity is raised to 85 kt.

Rachel continues to move west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt, and this 
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so while a 
mid- to upper-level trough remains over the southwestern United 
States. As the trough lifts northeastward and weakens, a ridge is 
forecast to build north of Rachel, causing the system to gradually 
turn more toward the west by the weekend. The track guidance remains 
in good agreement on this overall scenario, and the latest NHC track 
forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction, 
lying near the HCCA and GDMI aids.

Environmental conditions should remain generally favorable for 
strengthening during the next couple of days, with very warm sea 
surface temperatures and plenty of mid-level moisture along the 
forecast track. Persistent easterly to northeast vertical wind shear 
of around 15 kt may be a limiting factor in the short term, but the 
shear is forecast to gradually relax thereafter. Rachel should 
continue to strengthen over the next 24 h, especially if the 
inner-core structure continues to improve, and is forecast to become 
a major hurricane within the next couple of days. Thereafter, 
progressively cooler sea surface temperatures and dry mid-level air 
should induce a gradual weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, lying above the 
guidance envelope in the short term before trending toward the upper 
end of the guidance thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 19.4N 109.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 19.6N 109.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 19.8N 110.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 19.9N 111.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 20.2N 112.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 20.4N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 20.5N 114.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 20.6N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 20.7N 119.4W   80 KT  90 MPH