Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
520 WTPZ33 KNHC 010839 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM MST Thu Oct 01 2026 ...RACHEL STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 109.3W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect. Interests in the southern portion of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Rachel. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 109.3 West. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel will continue to move away from mainland Mexico and pass south of the Baja California Peninsula today. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rachel is expected to continue strengthening and become a major hurricane within the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.