Tropical Cyclone Discussion

947
WTPA42 PHFO 010245
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Nolo's structure has degraded quite a bit over the last couple of 
hours. The storm has lost its defined center, and convection across 
the southern flank has weakened substantially based on satellite 
imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC 
both assigned Nolo a Final T-Number of 2.5, and UW-CIMSS objective 
intensity estimates range from 27 to 42 kt. Based on these data, 
Nolo's initial intensity was lowered slightly to 40 kt. 

The storm's forward motion has slowed to a crawl, and initial motion 
was set at 270/1 kt, although confidence is low on Nolo's exact 
motion at 0300 UTC since its center position has hardly moved over 
the last two hours. Nolo's lack of motion is being driven by strong 
high pressure to its northwest and an upper-level trough to its 
northeast. Global models generally depict Nolo increasing in forward 
speed as it moves westward over the course of the next several days, 
as an upper-level low over the west Pacific weakens the 
aforementioned high. So long as the current synoptic pattern is in 
place, however, Nolo may appear nearly stationary at times. Little 
was changed in the latest track forecast, other than to nudge it 
toward the latest HCCA guidance.

Nolo continues to be in a hostile environment defined by strong 
vertical wind shear, relatively dry mid-level air, and marginal 
SSTs. Guidance generally depicts shear backing off as the storm 
moves westward over warming SSTs, however, Nolo may struggle to 
re-intensify in the meantime. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
keeps Nolo's strength relatively steady overnight, before 
environmental conditions are expected to allow for a gradual 
increase in intensity starting late Thursday onward. This forecast 
lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 21.5N 164.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 21.6N 165.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 21.9N 165.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 22.3N 166.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 22.6N 167.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 22.7N 170.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 22.8N 173.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 24.2N 179.8E   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 25.5N 173.1E   90 KT 105 MPH