Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
625 WTPZ33 KNHC 010234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM MST Wed Sep 30 2026 ...RACHEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 108.5W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect. Interests in the southern portion of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Rachel. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.5 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to move away from mainland Mexico and pass south of the Baja California Peninsula on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rachel could strengthen rapidly tonight and into Thursday and become a major hurricane within the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.