Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
030 AXPZ20 KNHC 302107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 18.8N 108.0W at 30/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection extends out to 360 nm in the southwest semicircle, and 150 nm in the northeast semicircle. Seas near the center are as high as 33 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to move away from mainland Mexico and between the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula and the Revillagigedo Islands through Fri. Rachel is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west- central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 14.9N 127.0W at 30/2100 UTC, moving east at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and this system is expected to degenerate into a post- tropical cyclone by late Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N90W to 10N99W, from 15N115W to 15N125W, and from 12N131W to 13N137W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 06N between 85W and 90W, from 05N to 12N between 95W and 110W, and from 06N to 08N between 130W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Rachel is impacting the area between Cabo Corrientes, Socorro Island, south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and rough seas also persist off southern Mexico, impacting the coast from Colima to Oaxaca. Large swell from Rachel is impacting the waters off Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds and slight seas over the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 18.8N 108.0W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Rachel will move to 19.1N 108.6W Thu morning, 19.6N 109.2W Thu afternoon, then to 19.9N 109.9W by Fri morning, just to the north of Socorro Island. Rachel will continue to 20.0N 110.8W Fri afternoon, 20.1N 111.8W Sat morning, and 20.3N 113.0W Sat afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the northwest of Clarion Island Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, strong winds and rough seas will develop in the Tehuantepec region tonight and continue into Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... NW swell from Rachel is reaching the waters off Guatemala where seas are 7 ft. Gentle breezes and slight seas persist off the remainder of Central America. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 6 ft seas in a mix of swell are noted off Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, a light pressure gradient will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E. The remnant low of Odalys is near 19N126W with a pressure of 1008 mb. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing north of 18N and west of 125W. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will move to 15.2N 125.3W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 15.3N 123.1W Thu afternoon, 15.3N 120.5W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Wind and seas will diminish elsewhere west of 120W through Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas will persist south of Rachel from 05N to 15N east of 125W.