Tropical Cyclone Discussion
472 WTPZ44 KNHC 301447 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192026 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Convection has increased near Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, with cloud-top temperatures falling below -70C in the deepest convection. Recent satellite imagery also shows strong upper-level outflow. However, the depression continues to contend with approximately 20 kt of easterly wind shear and relatively dry mid-level air, which could limit the persistence of this recent increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Recent subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 25-32 kt. Based on the increasing convection and the available intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been raised to 30 kt for this advisory. Nineteen-E is moving eastward around 9 kt. The tropical depression is expected to continue on an eastward to east-northeastward heading over the next day or so, primarily steered by the low-level flow associated with a northward-displaced monsoon trough. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged to the left of the previous advisory and remains near the middle of the forecast envelope. Similar unfavorable environmental conditions, including moderate wind shear and a relatively dry mid-level environment, are expected over the next day and will likely prevent any additional intensification. Beyond 24 h, increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should induce weakening, and Nineteen-E is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Thursday. The latest NHC intensity forecast maintains a steady intensity through the next 24 h, followed by weakening and eventual dissipation forecast by 48 h, consistent with the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.3N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.7N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.9N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.0N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED