Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
971 AXNT20 KNHC 301017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1005 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13.5N17W and continues westward to 15N28W to 11N38W. The ITCZ extends from 11N38W to 06N48W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 19N and between 19W and 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A few showers and thunderstorms are occurring off Veracruz and the Florida Straits. High pressure over the eastern United States supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas over the western Gulf waters, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern United States and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds over the western Gulf waters. These winds will expand eastward across the basin by tonight as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and building seas are possible behind the very slow moving front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection already described in the Tropical Waves section above, strong storms are noted off Panama and NW Colombia, while only passing weak showers are seen in the central and eastern Caribbean. High pressure north of the area sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the basin, increasing to strong speeds off northern Colombia and in the Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela. Seas of 4-8 ft are evident across the Caribbean, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. For the forecast, the tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W over the next few days. High pressure north of the area will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the remainder of the week. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Later, a frontal boundary will slide into the Gulf of America and western Atlantic this weekend, resulting in a weakening pressure gradient across the Caribbean as the ridge retreats. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the basin into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A divergence flow aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to sustain strong showers and thunderstorms across the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Farther east, showers dot the waters between Bermuda and the Leeward Islands. High pressure dominates the SW North Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft south of 25N and west of 55W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere west of 55W. The remnants of Fay continue moving westward near 23N51W and support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of the center. Fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring in the northern semicircle of the low. Seas of 6-8 ft are found from 20N to 28N and between 44W and 55W. Meanwhile, moderate westerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted north of 29N and between 35W and 50W associated with Tropical Storm Hanna currently north of our waters. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, weak high pressure is prevalent sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist across the region over the remainder of the week and into the weekend supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the remnants of Post- Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the offshore waters may move west of 55W by tonight. This system will continue to weaken and may dissipate late this week. Looking ahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters off NE Florida early next week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas behind the boundary.