Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
422 WTPZ33 KNHC 300848 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026 ...RACHEL IS STRENGTHENING... ...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 107.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 107.2 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to move away from mainland Mexico and south of the Baja California Peninsula through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected today, and Rachel could become a major hurricane within the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this morning. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.