Tropical Cyclone Discussion

070
WTPZ44 KNHC 300837
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192026
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Apart from some intermittent bursts of deep convection north and 
east of the center, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is all but devoid 
of convection. Visible satellite imagery continues to depict a 
closed circulation, albeit slightly elongated. A 0531 UTC METOP-C 
scatterometer pass confirmed an elongated circulation, with peak 
winds of around 20 kt surrounding the center. The latest TAFB Dvorak 
fix was T2.0/30 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial 
intensity is held at 25 kt.
 
The initial motion has shifted slightly east-southeastward, now at 
110/08 kt. The depression is expected to maintain a generally 
east-southeastward path, with slight wobbles in its track, as it is 
steered by a northward-displaced monsoon trough. The updated NHC 
track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory, 
roughly in between the simple (TVCN) and corrected consensus (HCCA) 
aids.

Nineteen-E is forecast to remain in a relatively hostile environment 
marked by moderate vertical wind shear within a moisture-starved 
environment. The depression is anticipated to degenerate into a 
post-tropical remnant low within 36 h, but given how little 
convection has persisted over the last several hours, it is very 
possible that this transition could occur sooner. The biggest source 
of uncertainty in the forecast is the degree to which diurnally 
enhanced convection will occur, if at all. The latest intensity 
forecast keeps the depression's strength steady through the forecast 
period, following the middle of the model envelope, with dissipation 
still expected to occur within 60 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 13.6N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 14.1N 127.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 14.5N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 14.7N 124.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0600Z 14.7N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED