Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
221 AXPZ20 KNHC 300306 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 17.0N 106.6W at 30/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. The center is partially exposed under northerly shear, shifting numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 10N to 22N between 101W and 114W. Seas near the center are as high as 28 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is forecast to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico through Thursday. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday and a major hurricane by Thursday. Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west- central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 13.8N 130.2W at 30/0300 UTC, moving east-southeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 90 nm to 120 in the northern quadrant, and this has diminished from a few hours ago. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and this system is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by Thursday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 15N96W, and from 14N109W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 17N between 110W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on T.S. Rachel. Rachel will impact a large majority of the forecast waters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough seas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere, except slight in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.0N 107.7W Wed morning, move to 18.9N 108.7W Wed evening, 19.5N 109.5W Thu morning, 19.8N 110.2W Thu evening, 20.0N 111.2W Fri morning, and 20.2N 112.4W Fri evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.4N 114.4W by late Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... NW swell from Rachel is reaching the waters off Guatemala where seas are 7 ft. Gentle breezes and slight seas persist off the remainder of Central America. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 6 ft seas in a mix of swell are noted off Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, a light pressure gradient will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on T.S. Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E. The remnant low of Odalys is near 20N124W with a pressure of 1005 mb. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing north of 20N and from 07N to 20N west of 125W. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will move to 14.0N 128.9W Wed morning, 14.4N 127.0W Wed evening, become a remnant low and move to 14.7N 125.3W Thu morning, 14.8N 123.5W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Winds and seas will diminish elsewhere outside of tropical cyclone area.