Tropical Cyclone Discussion

538
WTPA42 PHFO 300236
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Nolo continues to weaken this afternoon due to strong southwesterly 
vertical wind shear and dry air entraining into the circulation. 
Satellite imagery shows the low-level center becoming partially 
exposed, with deep convection decreasing in coverage and cloud tops 
warming. The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates 
from JTWC and HFO are both 65 kt, while objective estimates range 
from 65 to 75 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and 
decreasing intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 
75 kt.

Nolo has started to slow down and is moving northward, or 360/5 kt. 
This trend will continue tonight into Wednesday as it interacts with 
a mid- to upper-level trough. As a mid-level ridge builds north of 
Nolo, a sharp westward turn is forecast by early Wednesday, followed 
by a generally westward motion through the remainder of the week. 
The latest track guidance remains in decent agreement on this, 
although some cross-track spread persists. The latest GDMI and HCCA 
guidance has shifted southward from the previous cycle, taking Nolo 
slightly farther away from French Frigate Shoals, Maro Reef, and 
Lisianski Island as it moves westward. The ECMWF and GFS remain on 
the southern side of the guidance envelope, while the GDMI and HCCA 
are on the northern side. The latest NHC track forecast is similar 
to the previous prediction and lies between these solutions. Nolo is 
forecast to accelerate westward later this week and into the weekend 
as the ridge becomes more established north of the cyclone.

Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are 
expected to continue affecting Nolo during the next 36 to 48 h. 
These hostile environmental conditions should result in additional 
weakening, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm on 
Wednesday. The shear is expected to relax in about 48 to 60 h, 
allowing environmental conditions to become more favorable for 
re-strengthening. However, the dry mid-level environment could limit 
the rate of intensification despite the warm sea surface 
temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to 
the previous advisory, showing continued weakening during the next 
couple of days before gradual re-strengthening begins. Nolo is 
forecast to regain hurricane intensity by Friday and strengthen 
somewhat thereafter. The intensity forecast remains near the middle 
of the guidance envelope.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 22.0N 164.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 22.4N 164.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 22.5N 164.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 22.6N 165.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 22.7N 166.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 22.9N 166.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 23.1N 168.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 23.8N 173.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 25.3N 179.5W   80 KT  90 MPH