Tropical Cyclone Discussion

532
WTNT43 KNHC 300235
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082026
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 30 2026

Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that the low-level 
center remains exposed to the west of the main convection area. 
The convective pattern has become even more elongated west-east, 
likely influenced by the nearby frontal boundary. A 0032 UTC 
METOP-C scatterometer pass shows peak winds of 33 kt in the 
northeast quadrant. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.5/35 kt, 
aligning well with the mostly unchanged UW-CIMSS objective 
estimates. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity remains 
35 kt.
 
The initial motion remains southeastward, now 130/10 kt, as Hanna is 
moving along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies to the 
southwest of a large trough over the northeastern Atlantic. During 
the next 12–24 h, the flow near the cyclone will become more 
west-to-east, and as Hanna weakens vertically a low-level ridge 
centered south of the Azores will become the main steering 
influence. This should result in the cyclone, or its remnants, 
turning east-northeastward. The updated NHC forecast track was 
largely unchanged from the previous advisory and remains close to 
the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA).

Hanna is forecast to gradually weaken as it persists in a 
moisture-starved environment, with moderate to strong vertical wind 
shear prevailing over the next 48 to 72 h. The latest GFS/ECMWF 
simulated satellite imagery now forecasts the system to stop 
producing convection in 24-36 h, at which time it would degenerate 
into a remnant low. After that, the remnant low is expected to open 
into a trough by 96 h.  However, it is possible that the system 
becomes a post-tropical system sooner if it merges with the nearby 
front.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 33.7N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 33.6N  42.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 34.1N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 34.7N  39.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0000Z 35.4N  36.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/1200Z 36.1N  34.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/0000Z 36.6N  31.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED