Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
192 AXNT20 KNHC 292219 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 79W, south of 18N into eastern Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered convection is along the wave from 13N to 16N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 1012 mb low pressure near 22N27W, to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 08N55W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 30W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough reaches from 27N85W to 20N95W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active southeast of the trough over much of the southeast and south-central Gulf, associated with an upper trough extending from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle SE to S breezes are noted over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE winds are noted over the western Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf. For the forecast, the trough will gradually dissipate through the evening as high pressure builds in. Gentle to moderate return flow will prevail, except moderate to locally fresh over the western Gulf tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh across the basin by Wed evening as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend as a front approaches the western portion, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and building seas are possibly behind the very slow moving front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active over the far northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel, associated with an upper trough over the Gulf. High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean and near the Gulf of Honduras through the remainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate in the SW Caribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas will dominate the basin, except slight in areas of weakest winds, and also locally rough off NW Colombia late tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Recently downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay is centered near 23.7N 48.2W at 29/2100 UTC or 1380 nm WSW of the Azores, moving WSW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm in the northern semicircle of the low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm in the northeast semicircle of Fay. Maximum seas are 8 ft (2.5 m) within 60 nm in the northwest quadrant of Fay. Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the northern Bahamas, associated with an upper trough over the eastern Gulf. 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 27N62W, north of a surface trough extending from 20N60W 11N53W. This pattern is supporting moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 55W, except for fresh winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola. Outside of the area around Fay, mostly gentle breezes and 5-7 ft seas in mixed swell dominate the remainder of the north Atlantic south of 31N. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as broad troughing lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE of Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through Fri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin by the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay east of the area will become a remnant low and move to 23.1N 49.8W Wed morning, 22.7N 52.0W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Slight to moderate seas will dominate through the forecast period.