Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
429 WTPZ33 KNHC 292042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 300 PM CST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 105.7W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 12-24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.7 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is forecast to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Aircraft data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and major hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by tonight or Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.