Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
331 WTPZ32 KNHC 292036 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...POLO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 109.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF EL PASO TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings and watches. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas should continue to monitor the progress of Polo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. Polo is now moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an additional increase in forward speed through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Polo will cross northwestern Mexico this afternoon and evening before dissipating. The remnants of Polo should continue quickly northeastward, passing over southern New Mexico and far western Texas late tonight or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the center of Polo moves farther inland, and the surface circulation is expected to dissipated tonight. However, the remnants of Polo are likely bring gusty winds to portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas late tonight and early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across northwestern Mexico near the center of Polo and will continue spread northeastward tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.