Tropical Cyclone Discussion

294
WTPZ44 KNHC 292033
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192026
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Tropical Depression Nineteen's convection has dwindled quite a bit 
over the last several hours. The system's low-level center remains 
completely exposed, with lingering convective activity lying several 
dozen miles to the north of the circulation. Scatterometry data from 
this afternoon just clipped the storm's eastern flank, so TD 19's 
initial intensity will hedge more towards TAFB's latest Dvorak 
estimate of 2.0/30 kt, remaining steady from the last advisory.

Satellite imagery suggests that forward speed has slowed as well, 
with the initial motion set at 85/6 kt. The depression is generally 
expected to remain on an eastward trajectory as it is steered by a 
northward-displaced equatorial trough. Little was changed in the 
track forecast from the previous advisory, as models are largely in 
good agreement on the storm's path. Only slight adjustments in 
forward speed were made to better follow current trends. 

Several environmental factors will inhibit further development of 
the depression. Moderate vertical wind shear, drying mid-level air, 
and marginal SSTs left in the wake of the remnants of Odalys are 
likely to keep the system from reaching tropical storm strength. 
Diurnal convection cycles may allow the system to briefly flirt with 
tropical storm strength, however simulated satellite imagery across 
global models depict little to no convection for this system over 
the next 48 h. The latest intensity forecast moves up the 
depression's post-tropical transition time to Thursday afternoon, 
and dissipation is forecast shortly thereafter. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 14.2N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 14.2N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 14.4N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 14.7N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 14.8N 124.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/0600Z 14.9N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED