Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
959 AXNT20 KNHC 291711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 24.2N 47.3W at 29/1500 UTC or 1330 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 10 kt, and this motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Little change in strength is forecast, and Fay is forecast to become a post- tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 77W, south of 18N into northwestern Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is along and ahead of the wave from 12N to 18N between 75W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 22N27W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 16N between 25W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Numerous moderate convection is occurring over the SE Gulf S of 28N and E of 90W, supported by a surface trough analyzed from the Bay of Campeche to near 25N88W and another surface trough along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure over northern Mexico against lower pressure across the Gulf is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds over the western half of the basin, and light to gentle winds along with slight to moderate elsewhere. For the forecast, a frontal trough extending from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico supports scattered showers and thunderstorms near the axis. This feature will gradually dissipate through the evening as high pressure builds in. Gentle to moderate return flow will prevail, except moderate to locally fresh over the western Gulf tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh across the basin by Wed evening as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend as a front approaches the western portion, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection in the SW Caribbean. Deep layer troughing continues to support scattered moderate convection over the far NW Caribbean N of 20N and W of 80W, including western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. Weak high pressure has drifted to near 28N60W, tightening the pressure gradient. This is supporting moderate trades across the E Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds as well as moderate seas over the central basin, including offshore NW Colombia. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas are ongoing. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean and near the Gulf of Honduras through the remainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate in the SW Caribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas will dominate the basin, except slight in areas of weakest winds. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Fay. Deep layer troughing and abundant low-level moisture continue to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms across across the offshores between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A surface trough analyzed from 11N52W to 20N58W also supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and near the trough axis. A 1019 mb high is SE of Bermuda near 28N60W, supporting moderate or weaker winds across the region. Seas are generally moderate across the SW N Atlantic waters. Otherwise, the remnants of Gonzalo are supporting gentle to moderate winds NW of the Cape Verde Islands, and a cold front extends from 31N23W to 27N31W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as a trough lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE of Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through Fri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin by the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Depression Fay currently east of the offshore waters may move west of 55W by Wed night. Slight to moderate seas will dominate through the forecast period.