Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
491 AXPZ20 KNHC 291610 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Polo is centered near 27.8N 110.9W at 29/1500 UTC, moving northeast at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are to near 27 ft (8 m). Polo is now over the Gulf of California, with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 30 nm of the center. Polo is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow on the east side of a mid- latitude trough over the southwestern United States. The forecast track shows the cyclone making landfall near Guaymas in the next few hours and then crossing northwestern Mexico until dissipation occurs. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches is expected across southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 15.3N 105.0W at 29/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are to near 24 ft (8 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 240 nm in the southwest semicircle of Rachel, and within 120 nm in the northeast semicircle. Rachel will turn toward the northwest later today as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico, followed by a gradual decrease in forward speed as Rachel moves into a region with weaker steering flow. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in regions of steep terrain. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days. Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Newly formed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 14.4N 131.6W at 29/1500 UTC, moving east at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm in the northern quadrant. Although the system has become a tropical depression, the center is mostly exposed with moderate shear. There is a slight chance of the system reaching tropical storm intensity later today before it feels the cold wake of former Hurricane Odalys by tomorrow. The environment is expected to further dry out during the next couple of days with an increase in shear. These factors should cause the depression to weaken by late Wed and degenerate into a post- tropical cyclone by late Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Rachel and Nineteen-E. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 13N94W, and from 13N108W to 11N115W to 15N132W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 13N between 100W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel. These systems will impact a large majority of the forecast waters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough seas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere, except slight in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Polo is near 27.8N 110.9W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Polo will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.5N 108.2W this evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Farther south, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 15.3N 105.0W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west- northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Rachel will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.5N 106.4W this evening, move to 17.9N 107.7W Wed morning, 19.0N 108.8W Wed evening, 19.7N 109.5W Thu morning, 20.1N 110.0W Thu evening, and 20.4N 110.6W Fri morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the northeast of the Revillagigedo Islands by late Fri night, and meander between those islands and the southern tip of Baja California through late Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate east to southeast winds are over the western portion of the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light gradient is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, a rather light pressure gradient will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and T.D. Nineteen-E. The remnant low of Odalys is near 21N123W with a pressure of 1006 mb. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing north of 20N and from 07N to 20N west of 125W. For the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.5N 130.2W this evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 14.5N 128.5W Wed morning, move to 14.7N 126.8W Wed evening, 14.9N 125.1W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 15.0N 123.3W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Winds and seas will diminish elsewhere outside of tropical cyclone area as described above.