Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
541 WTPZ33 KNHC 291450 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 900 AM CST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 105.0W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 105.0 West. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by tonight or Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.