Tropical Cyclone Discussion

538
WTNT41 KNHC 291449
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Fay remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center 
completely exposed and all the deep convection sheared well to the 
southwest. This remaining convection continues to be displaced 
further and further away from the low-level center. Recent satellite 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB have trended downward to 
around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this 
advisory is lowered to 30 kt, making Fay a tropical depression once 
again.

Fay is moving southwestward, or 225/10 kt, steered by a mid-level 
ridge located over the central Atlantic. This general motion is 
expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast 
period. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update to 
the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with HCCA 
corrected-consensus aid.

The depression is expected to continue to deal with increasing 
vertical wind shear, which should limit convection near the 
low-level center. As Fay moves into a more stable airmass, global 
models are in good agreement that the cyclone will become completely 
devoid of deep convection by Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at 
that time, before opening into a trough shortly thereafter. Given 
the increasingly hostile environment, it is entirely possible that 
the system could become post-tropical or dissipate even earlier than 
currently forecast.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 24.2N  47.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 23.4N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 22.8N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z 22.5N  53.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED