Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
402 WTPZ32 KNHC 291443 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...POLO ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GUAYMAS MEXICO... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN THE LANDFALL AREA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 110.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the west coast of Baja California Sur. The Government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of Baja California Sur from Loreto to Santa Rosalia, and has discontinued all other watches and warnings on the east coast of Baja California Sur. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur from Loreto to Santa Rosalia * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next several hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 110.9 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed today. On the forecast track, the core of Polo will move inland over southern Sonora near Guaymas during the next few hours and cross portions of northwestern Mexico this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as the center crosses northwestern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The Mexican Navy automated station in Guaymas recently reported a wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area during the next few hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico near the center of Polo this afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected across Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.