Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
692 AXNT20 KNHC 291052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 25.0N 46.8W at 29/0900 UTC or 1270 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas to 11 ft are within 75 nm in the NW quadrant. Fay is a sheared storm with numerous moderate to strong convection occurring from 22N to 25N between 43W and 47W. A general SW to W-SW motion is anticipated over the next several days. Some weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 36 h. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 77W, south of 18N into northwestern Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave from 14N to 18N between 77W and 82W, while scattered moderate convection is found elsewhere S of 19N between 74W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 20N17W to 21N25W to 07N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 08N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 20W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered heavy showers and tstms are ahead of a weak stationary front that extends from Apalachicola, FL SW to SE Louisiana. High pressure over northern Mexico against lower pressure across the Gulf is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds over the western half of the basin, and light to gentle winds along with slight to moderate elsewhere. For the forecast, the stationary front over the NE Gulf will dissipate late today. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas over mostly the western Gulf by tonight, as high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the front approaches the NW Gulf Fri and Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep layer troughing extending from the E Gulf of America southward across the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Caribbean is supporting scattered clusters of moderate isolated strong convection across the W basin. Weak high pressure across the western Atlantic has drifted southward to near 27N58W, and tightened the pressure gradient modestly. This is leading to moderate trades across the E Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the central basin, including offshore NW Colombia. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas are ongoing. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are forecast for the NW and central Caribbean through Sat night as high pressure builds north of the area. Mainly moderate trades are forecast for the eastern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay. An upper-level trough and abundant low-level moisture continue to fuel scattered heavy showers and tstms across across the offshores between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A 1018 mb high is SE of Bermuda near 27N58W, supporting moderate or weaker winds across the region. Seas are generally moderate across the SW N Atlantic waters. To the E, Tropical Storm Fay is near 25.0N 46.8W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving southwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Otherwise, the remnants of Gonzalo are supporting gentle to moderate winds NW of the Cape Verde Islands, and a cold front extends from 31N24W to 28N42W. Moderate or weaker winds are associated with these two features. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as a trough lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE of Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and support moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N Wed through Fri.