Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
438 AXPZ20 KNHC 291003 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Polo is centered near 26.2N 111.9W, or about 70 nm north of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico at 29/0900 UTC, moving northeast at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are to near 27 ft (8 m). Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas. Satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the N semicircle and 60 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Polo is expected to undergo a significant accelerating of its current motion this morning. On the forecast track, the core of Polo will continue moving across Baja California Sur for another few hours tonight, then move inland over southern Sonora late this morning. Some slight additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of hours while the center is over Baja California Sur, but Polo is still expected to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall in mainland Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast on Tue when Polo moves well inland over mainland Mexico. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches is expected across southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 14.7N 104.3W, or about 230 nm south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico at 29/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are to near 20 ft (7 M). Satellite imagery depicts very deep of the numerous strong type within 210 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and within 240 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. A generally northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane during the next day or so. Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán and Colima. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel. Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A 1005 mb low, Invest EP91, is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 14N134W. The system is still expected to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it drifts northeastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development late this week. This system has a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across southern Nicaragua, then to 11N85W to 12N90W and to 15N95W. It resumes west of Rachel at 14N110W to 11N115W to 15N122W to low pressure ,Invest EP91, near 14N134W 1005 mb to 13N136W and to beyond 14N140W. Numerous strong convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 117W-122W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 106W-117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel. These systems will impact a large majority of the forecast waters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough seas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere, except slight in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Polo will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 28.4N 110.1W this afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.7N 106.8W late tonight and dissipate Wed afternoon. Tropical Storm Rachel is near 14.7N 104.3W, or about 230 nm south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Rachel will move to near 15.7N 105.4W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.1N 106.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 18.4N 108.1W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, move to near 19.3N 109.1W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, move to near 19.8N 109.7W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt and to near 20.2N 110.3W late Thu night. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to northeast of the Revillagigedo Islands by late Fri night, and meander between those and the southern tip of Baja California through late Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate east to southeast winds are over the western portion of the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light gradient is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, a rather light pressure gradient will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and on a broad area low pressure in the far western waters that has potential for tropical cyclone formation this week. Away from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds are over the western portion of the area, primarily west of a line from about 30N120W to 19N130W to 14N140W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft primarily in long-period east to southeast swell. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere per overnight scatterometer satellite data passes. The remnant low of Odalys is near 21N123W with a pressure of 1004 mb. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are within 180 nm of the low in the NW quadrant along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. The low is forecast to move southward today, then weaken to a trough Wed. Winds will subside, but rough seas will prevail due to the influences of the nearby tropical systems. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 14.7N 104.3W, or about 230 nm south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Rachel will move to near 15.7N 105.4W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.1N 106.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 18.4N 108.1W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, move to near 19.3N 109.1W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, move to near 19.8N 109.7W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt and to near 20.2N 110.3W late Thu night. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to northeast of the Revillagigedo Islands by late Fri night, and meander between those islands and the southern tip of Baja California through late Sat. Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A 1005 mb low, Invest EP91, is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 14N134W. The system is still expected to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it drifts northeastward. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development late this week. This system has a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.